Putin India Visit To Focus On Oil Trade Defence Cooperation Amid Global Geopolitical Pressure

New Delhi: Despite signals from Indian companies reducing Russian crude imports, Moscow sees India as a vital energy buyer. Sources say Russia may offer deeper discounts to maintain long-term supply. In the past two years, India’s crude share from Russia surged dramatically due to low-cost offers. Putin is expected to request continued purchasing support. Officials believe New Delhi may negotiate strategically, balancing global pressure and domestic energy needs.

What Is The Current Energy Trade Scenario?

Russia became India’s largest crude supplier in 2024–25, accounting for 35 percent of total imports. In 2021, this figure was only 3 percent. By October 2025, India purchased 38 percent of Russia’s total oil exports, second only to China. Reliance Industries recently announced a suspension on Russian crude imports, raising supply uncertainty. Moscow fears losing its second-biggest buyer and may propose flexible pricing to stabilise demand.

How Have Sanctions Impacted Russia’s Economy?

Western restrictions and the prolonged Ukraine conflict have severely affected Russia's economic performance. GDP growth for 2025 is expected to dip below one percent. Inflation is estimated to exceed eight percent. Energy export taxation contributes around 40 percent of federal revenue. Losing India could further damage fiscal stability. With limited alternatives beyond China, Russia seeks assurance from New Delhi to preserve oil trade continuity.

What Defence Cooperation May Be Discussed?

Strategic and military collaboration will likely feature prominently during the annual summit. Defence equipment, joint research and technology transfer talks are expected. Officials believe both nations may explore extending cooperation on advanced missile systems and aircraft platforms. Russia may also seek long-term procurement guarantees. The discussions aim to retain India as a key defence partner amid growing competition in Asia.

Could Energy Agreements Shape Future Relations?

Analysts suggest that energy negotiations may set the tone for broader economic ties. Russia plans to expand crude production across all major fields over the next two decades. Sustaining Indian demand is critical to these projections. Continued discount offers could encourage long-term supply contracts. India, driven by rapid growth and rising consumption, may leverage the opportunity for strategic pricing advantages.

 Is Global Geopolitical Pressure Influencing The Visit?

The meeting takes place as Western leaders push for conflict resolution in Ukraine. India is expected to adopt a balanced stance, focusing on economic interests while maintaining neutrality. Observers believe New Delhi may prioritise stability in energy supply, defence cooperation and diplomatic equilibrium. Putin’s last visit to India was in December 2021, just before the war began.

What Outcome Can Be Expected From The Summit?

Discussions are likely to focus on oil trade continuity, defence alignment and strengthening economic cooperation. Both sides may issue a joint statement emphasising strategic partnership. Final agreements could include energy pricing commitments and expanded defence technology collaboration. Analysts expect India to negotiate cautiously while preserving national interests.